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A Framework for Non-Monotonic Reasoning About Probabilistic Assumptions
Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process.
An Application of Non-Monotonic Probabilistic Reasoning to Air Force Threat Correlation
Current approaches to expert systems' reasoning under uncertainty fail to capture the iterative revision process characteristic of intelligent human reasoning.
When Should a Decision Maker Ignore the Advice of a Decision Aid?
This paper argues that the principal difference between decision aids and most other types of information systems is the greater reliance of decision aids on fallible algorithms--algorithms that sometimes generate incorrect advice.
Decision Making "Biases" and Support for Assumption-Based Higher-Order Reasoning
Unaided human decision making appears to systematically violate consistency constraints imposed by normative theories; these biases in turn appear to justify the application of formal decision-analytic models.
