Data-Driven Malaria Prevalence Prediction in Large Densely-Populated Urban Holoendemic sub-Saharan West Africa: Harnessing Machine Learning Approaches and 22-years of Prospectively Collected Data

no code implementations • 18 Jun 2019 • Biobele J. Brown, Alexander A. Przybylski, Petru Manescu, Fabio Caccioli, Gbeminiyi Oyinloye, Muna Elmi, Michael J. Shaw, Vijay Pawar, Remy Claveau, John Shawe-Taylor, Mandayam A. Srinivasan, Nathaniel K. Afolabi, Adebola E. Orimadegun, Wasiu A. Ajetunmobi, Francis Akinkunmi, Olayinka Kowobari, Kikelomo Osinusi, Felix O. Akinbami, Samuel Omokhodion, Wuraola A. Shokunbi, Ikeoluwa Lagunju, Olugbemiro Sodeinde, Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes

Our Locality-specific Elastic-Net based Malaria Prediction System (LEMPS) achieves good generalization performance, both in magnitude and direction of the prediction, when tasked to predict monthly prevalence on previously unseen validation data (MAE<=6x10-2, MSE<=7x10-3) within a range of (+0. 1 to -0. 05) error-tolerance which is relevant and usable for aiding decision-support in a holoendemic setting.

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