1 code implementation • 23 Apr 2020 • Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A. Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Callizo, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Charles Whittaker, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt
Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from temporal data on observed to estimate the number of infections and rate of transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for a probabilistic time lag between infection and death.
Applications Methodology
