Search Results for author: Stefan Thurner

Found 13 papers, 2 papers with code

Estimating the impact of supply chain network contagion on financial stability

no code implementations4 May 2023 Zlata Tabachová, Christian Diem, András Borsos, Csaba Burger, Stefan Thurner

Within a multi-layer network framework we define a financial systemic risk index (FSRI) for every firm, quantifying these expected financial losses caused by its own- and all the secondary defaulting loans caused by supply chain network (SCN) shock propagation.

Estimating the loss of economic predictability from aggregating firm-level production networks

no code implementations22 Feb 2023 Christian Diem, András Borsos, Tobias Reisch, János Kertész, Stefan Thurner

Using a nearly complete nationwide FPN, containing 243, 399 Hungarian firms with 1, 104, 141 supplier-buyer-relations we self-consistently compare production losses on the aggregated industry-level production network (IPN) and the granular FPN.

Firm-level supply chains to minimize decarbonization unemployment and economic losses

no code implementations17 Feb 2023 Johannes Stangl, András Borsos, Christian Diem, Tobias Reisch, Stefan Thurner

We show that for an emission-reduction of 20% the most effective strategy leads to losses of about 2% of jobs and 2% of economic output.

Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

1 code implementation4 Oct 2022 Moritz Laber, Peter Klimek, Martin Bruckner, Liuhuaying Yang, Stefan Thurner

Dependencies in the global food production network can lead to shortages in numerous regions, as demonstrated by the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food supplies.

Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods: A population-centered perspective of systemic risk

no code implementations31 Jan 2022 William Schueller, Christian Diem, Melanie Hinterplattner, Johannes Stangl, Beate Conrady, Markus Gerschberger, Stefan Thurner

We demonstrate the method on a large food SN of a European country including 22, 938 business premises, 44, 355 supply links and 116 local administrative districts.

Management

Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network

no code implementations1 Dec 2021 Abhijit Chakraborty, Tobias Reisch, Christian Diem, Stefan Thurner

Using global supply network data on the firm-level, we present a method to estimate a country's exposure to direct and indirect economic losses caused by the failure of a company in another country.

Quantifying firm-level economic systemic risk from nation-wide supply networks

no code implementations15 Apr 2021 Christian Diem, András Borsos, Tobias Reisch, János Kertész, Stefan Thurner

While knowing the impact of individual companies on national economies is a prerequisite for efficient risk management, the quantitative assessment of the involved economic systemic risks (ESR) is hitherto practically non-existent, mainly because of a lack of fine-grained data in combination with coherent methods.

Management

Balancing quarantine and self-distancing measures in adaptive epidemic networks

no code implementations20 Oct 2020 Leonhard Horstmeyer, Christian Kuehn, Stefan Thurner

Second, we discover that there exists a relatively simple critical curve in parameter space for the epidemic threshold, which strongly suggests that there is a mutual compensation effect between the two mitigation strategies: as long as social distancing and quarantine measures are both sufficiently strong, large outbreaks are prevented.

Boosting test-efficiency by pooled testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2

1 code implementation22 Mar 2020 Rudolf Hanel, Stefan Thurner

Here we present a formula to estimate the optimal pooling size, the efficiency gain (tested persons per test), and the expected upper bound of missed infections in the pooled testing, all as a function of the populationwide infection levels and the false negative/positive rates of the currently used PCR tests.

Populations and Evolution Applications

Identification of gatekeeper diseases on the way to cardiovascular mortality

no code implementations2 Aug 2019 Nils Haug, Stefan Thurner, Alexandra Kautzky-Willer, Michael Gyimesi, Peter Klimek

Random walks on this multilayer network provide a more precise model for the time evolution of multimorbid health states when compared to models that cluster patients based on single diseases.

Clustering

The role of grammar in transition-probabilities of subsequent words in English text

no code implementations28 Dec 2018 Rudolf Hanel, Stefan Thurner

We demonstrate that superimposing grammatical structure -- as a local word re-ordering (permutation) process -- on a sample-space reducing process is sufficient to explain both, word frequencies and word-to-word transition probabilities.

Sentence Text Generation

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