Search Results for author: Thomas House

Found 9 papers, 7 papers with code

Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Time Probability Distributions

1 code implementation17 Jan 2023 Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall, Thomas House

Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting.

The role of regular asymptomatic testing in reducing the impact of a COVID-19 wave

1 code implementation18 Jul 2022 Miguel E. P. Silva, Martyn Fyles, Li Pi, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Caroline Jay, Thomas House, Elizabeth Fearon

Since regular asymptomatic testing requires only those with a positive result to reduce contact, while lockdown measures require the whole population to reduce contact, any policy decision that seeks to trade off harms from infection against other harms will not automatically favour one over the other.

A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic

1 code implementation14 Jan 2022 Joe Hilton, Heather Riley, Lorenzo Pellis, Rabia Aziza, Samuel P. C. Brand, Ivy K. Kombe, John Ojal, Andrea Parisi, Matt J. Keeling, D. James Nokes, Robert Manson-Sawko, Thomas House

The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19.

Total Effect Analysis of Vaccination on Household Transmission in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey

no code implementations14 Jul 2021 Thomas House, Lorenzo Pellis, Emma Pritchard, Angela R. McLean, A. Sarah Walker

We investigate the distribution of numbers of secondary cases in households in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (ONS CIS), stratified by timing of vaccination and infection in the households.

Fast Approximate Bayesian Contextual Cold Start Learning (FAB-COST)

1 code implementation18 Aug 2020 Jack R. McKenzie, Peter A. Appleby, Thomas House, Neil Walton

Cold-start is a notoriously difficult problem which can occur in recommendation systems, and arises when there is insufficient information to draw inferences for users or items.

Recommendation Systems

Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example

1 code implementation11 May 2020 Christopher E. Overton, Helena B. Stage, Shazaad Ahmad, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Paul Dark, Rajenki Das, Elizabeth Fearon, Timothy Felton, Martyn Fyles, Nick Gent, Ian Hall, Thomas House, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Lorenzo Pellis, Robert Sawko, Andrew Ustianowski, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy.

Populations and Evolution Physics and Society

Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions

1 code implementation31 Mar 2020 Lorenzo Pellis, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B. Stage, Christopher E. Overton, Lauren H. K. Chappell, Katrina A. Lythgoe, Elizabeth Fearon, Emma Bennett, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Rajenki Das, Martyn Fyles, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb, Thomas House, Ian Hall

Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made.

Populations and Evolution

Generalised Linear Models for Dependent Binary Outcomes with Applications to Household Stratified Pandemic Influenza Data

1 code implementation27 Nov 2019 Timothy Kinyanjui, Thomas House

Much traditional statistical modelling assumes that the outcome variables of interest are independent of each other when conditioned on the explanatory variables.

Model Selection Uncertainty Quantification

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