1 code implementation • 12 Jul 2021 • Mikko S. Pakkanen, Xenia Miscouridou, Matthew J. Penn, Charles Whittaker, Tresnia Berah, Swapnil Mishra, Thomas A. Mellan, Samir Bhatt
We also show that the incidence integral equations that arise from both of these specific models agree with the renewal equation used ubiquitously in infectious disease modelling.
1 code implementation • 23 Apr 2020 • Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A. Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Callizo, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Charles Whittaker, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt
Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from temporal data on observed to estimate the number of infections and rate of transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for a probabilistic time lag between infection and death.
Applications Methodology
2 code implementations • 17 Feb 2020 • Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Tresnia Berah, Harrison Zhu, Mikko Pakkanen, Samir Bhatt
We show that our framework can accurately learn expressive function classes such as Gaussian processes, but also properties of functions to enable statistical inference (such as the integral of a log Gaussian process).