Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data

8 Jun 2020 · Rodrigo Veiga, Rodrigo Murta, Renato Vicente ·

We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with plateau scenarios taken from locations that have reached this stage. Finally, the logistic curve found is corrected by the subnotification factor and sampled to project the future demand for ICU beds.

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Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data

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