Integrating prediction in mean-variance portfolio optimization

18 Feb 2021  ·  Andrew Butler, Roy H. Kwon ·

Many problems in quantitative finance involve both predictive forecasting and decision-based optimization. Traditionally, predictive models are optimized with unique prediction-based objectives and constraints, and are therefore unaware of how those predictions will ultimately be used in the context of their final decision-based optimization... We present a stochastic optimization framework for integrating regression based predictive models in a mean-variance portfolio optimization setting. Closed-form analytical solutions are provided for the unconstrained and equality constrained case. For the general inequality constrained case, we make use of recent advances in neural-network architecture for efficient optimization of batch quadratic-programs. To our knowledge, this is the first rigorous study of integrating prediction in a mean-variance portfolio optimization setting. We present several historical simulations using global futures data and demonstrate the benefits of the integrated approach in comparison to the decoupled alternative. read more

PDF Abstract

Datasets


  Add Datasets introduced or used in this paper

Results from the Paper


  Submit results from this paper to get state-of-the-art GitHub badges and help the community compare results to other papers.

Methods


No methods listed for this paper. Add relevant methods here