Motion Forecasting with Unlikelihood Training

Motion forecasting is essential for making safe and intelligent decisions in robotic applications such as autonomous driving. State-of-the-art methods formulate it as a sequence-to-sequence prediction problem, which is solved in an encoder-decoder framework with a maximum likelihood estimation objective. In this paper, we show that the likelihood objective itself results in a model assigning too much probability to trajectories that are unlikely given the contextual information such as maps and states of surrounding agents. This is despite the fact that many state-of-the-art models do take contextual information as part of their input. We propose a new objective, unlikelihood training, which forces generated trajectories that conflicts with contextual information to be assigned a lower probability by our model. We demonstrate that our method can significantly improve state-of-art models’ performance on challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets (nuScenes and Argoverse) by 8% and reduce the standard deviation by up to 50%. The code will be made available.