Multivariate Linear Regression of Symptoms-related Tweets for Infectious Gastroenteritis Scale Estimation
To date, various Twitter-based event detection systems have been proposed. Most of their targets, however, share common characteristics. They are seasonal or global events such as earthquakes and flu pandemics. In contrast, this study targets unseasonal and local disease events. Our system investigates the frequencies of disease-related words such as {``}nausea{''},{``}chill{''},and {``}diarrhea{''} and estimates the number of patients using regression of these word frequencies. Experiments conducted using Japanese 47 areas from January 2017 to April 2017 revealed that the detection of small and unseasonal event is extremely difficult (overall performance: 0.13). However, we found that the event scale and the detection performance show high correlation in the specified cases (in the phase of patient increasing or decreasing). The results also suggest that when 150 and more patients appear in a high population area, we can expect that our social sensors detect this outbreak. Based on these results, we can infer that social sensors can reliably detect unseasonal and local disease events under certain conditions, just as they can for seasonal or global events.
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