Neural Network Regression with Beta, Dirichlet, and Dirichlet-Multinomial Outputs

We propose a method for quantifying uncertainty in neural network regression models when the targets are real values on a $d$-dimensional simplex, such as probabilities. We show that each target can be modeled as a sample from a Dirichlet distribution, where the parameters of the Dirichlet are provided by the output of a neural network, and that the combined model can be trained using the gradient of the data likelihood... (read more)

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