Predicting Item Survival for Multiple Choice Questions in a High-Stakes Medical Exam
One of the most resource-intensive problems in the educational testing industry relates to ensuring that newly-developed exam questions can adequately distinguish between students of high and low ability. The current practice for obtaining this information is the costly procedure of pretesting: new items are administered to test-takers and then the items that are too easy or too difficult are discarded. This paper presents the first study towards automatic prediction of an item{'}s probability to {``}survive{''} pretesting (item survival), focusing on human-produced MCQs for a medical exam. Survival is modeled through a number of linguistic features and embedding types, as well as features inspired by information retrieval. The approach shows promising first results for this challenging new application and for modeling the difficulty of expert-knowledge questions.
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