Test Sample Accuracy Scales with Training Sample Density in Neural Networks
Intuitively, one would expect accuracy of a trained neural network's prediction on test samples to correlate with how densely the samples are surrounded by seen training samples in representation space. We find that a bound on empirical training error smoothed across linear activation regions scales inversely with training sample density in representation space. Empirically, we verify this bound is a strong predictor of the inaccuracy of the network's prediction on test samples. For unseen test sets, including those with out-of-distribution samples, ranking test samples by their local region's error bound and discarding samples with the highest bounds raises prediction accuracy by up to 20% in absolute terms for image classification datasets, on average over thresholds.
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CIFAR-10
CIFAR-100
SVHN
