Qualitative Propagation and Scenario-based Explanation of Probabilistic Reasoning

27 Mar 2013 Max Henrion Marek J. Druzdzel

Comprehensible explanations of probabilistic reasoning are a prerequisite for wider acceptance of Bayesian methods in expert systems and decision support systems. A study of human reasoning under uncertainty suggests two different strategies for explaining probabilistic reasoning: The first, qualitative belief propagation, traces the qualitative effect of evidence through a belief network from one variable to the next... (read more)

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