Social-Implicit: Rethinking Trajectory Prediction Evaluation and The Effectiveness of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation

6 Mar 2022  ·  Abduallah Mohamed, Deyao Zhu, Warren Vu, Mohamed Elhoseiny, Christian Claudel ·

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at . Code is available at .

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Results from the Paper

 Ranked #1 on Trajectory Prediction on Stanford Drone (ADE (in world coordinates) metric)

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Task Dataset Model Metric Name Metric Value Global Rank Result Benchmark
Trajectory Prediction ETH Social-Implicit Avg AMD/AMV 8/12 0.90 # 1
Trajectory Prediction ETH/UCY Social-Implicit ADE-8/12 0.33 # 14
FDE-8/12 0.33 # 5
Avg AMD/AMV 8/12 0.90 # 1
Trajectory Prediction Stanford Drone Social-Implicit ADE (in world coordinates) 0.47 # 1
FDE (in world coordinates) 0.89 # 3
AMD 2.83 # 1
AMV 0.077 # 1
Avg AMD/AMV 8/12 1.45 # 1
Trajectory Prediction UCY Social-Implicit Avg AMD/AMV 8/12 0.90 # 1


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