The parameters uncertainty inflation fallacy

14 Nov 2016Pascal Pernot

Statistical estimation of the prediction uncertainty of physical models is typically hindered by the inadequacy of these models due to various approximations they are built upon. The prediction errors due to model inadequacy can be handled either by correcting the model's results, or by adapting the model's parameters uncertainty to generate prediction uncertainty representative, in a way to be defined, of model inadequacy errors... (read more)

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