Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from COVID-19 in France (Running title: Infection fatality ratio from COVID-19)

17 Apr 2020 Roques Lionel BioSP Klein Etienne BioSP Papax Julien BioSP Sar Antoine BioSP Soubeyrand Samuel BioSP

The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number of cases and the mortality rate.In this report, we develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR ODE model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method... (read more)

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