Search Results for author: Markus Pauly

Found 23 papers, 2 papers with code

Choosing a Model, Shaping a Future: Comparing LLM Perspectives on Sustainability and its Relationship with AI

no code implementations20 May 2025 Annika Bush, Meltem Aksoy, Markus Pauly, Greta Ontrup

As organizations increasingly rely on AI systems for decision support in sustainability contexts, it becomes critical to understand the inherent biases and perspectives embedded in Large Language Models (LLMs).

Decision Making Model Selection

A Cautionary Tale About "Neutrally" Informative AI Tools Ahead of the 2025 Federal Elections in Germany

no code implementations21 Feb 2025 Ina Dormuth, Sven Franke, Marlies Hafer, Tim Katzke, Alexander Marx, Emmanuel Müller, Daniel Neider, Markus Pauly, Jérôme Rutinowski

In this study, we examine the reliability of AI-based Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) and large language models (LLMs) in providing objective political information.

Which Imputation Fits Which Feature Selection Method? A Survey-Based Simulation Study

no code implementations18 Dec 2024 Jakob Schwerter, Andrés Romero, Florian Dumpert, Markus Pauly

Tree-based learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost are still the gold-standard prediction methods for tabular data.

Feature Importance feature selection +3

A Central Limit Theorem for the permutation importance measure

no code implementations17 Dec 2024 Nico Föge, Lena Schmid, Marc Ditzhaus, Markus Pauly

Random Forests have become a widely used tool in machine learning since their introduction in 2001, known for their strong performance in classification and regression tasks.

regression

Is GPT-4 Less Politically Biased than GPT-3.5? A Renewed Investigation of ChatGPT's Political Biases

no code implementations28 Oct 2024 Erik Weber, Jérôme Rutinowski, Niklas Jost, Markus Pauly

On the Big Five Personality Test, GPT-3. 5 showed highly pronounced Openness and Agreeableness traits (O: 85. 9%, A: 84. 6%).

AR-Sieve Bootstrap for the Random Forest and a simulation-based comparison with rangerts time series prediction

no code implementations1 Oct 2024 Cabrel Teguemne Fokam, Carsten Jentsch, Michel Lang, Markus Pauly

We propose the combination of RF with a residual bootstrapping technique where we replace the IID bootstrap with the AR-Sieve Bootstrap (ARSB), which assumes the DGP to be an autoregressive process.

Time Series Time Series Prediction

TREE: Tree Regularization for Efficient Execution

no code implementations18 Jun 2024 Lena Schmid, Daniel Biebert, Christian Hakert, Kuan-Hsun Chen, Michel Lang, Markus Pauly, Jian-Jia Chen

Random forests and decision trees are shown to be a suitable model for such a scenario, since they are not only heavily tunable towards the total model size, but also offer a high potential for optimizing their executions according to the underlying memory architecture.

Binary Classification

Behind the Screen: Investigating ChatGPT's Dark Personality Traits and Conspiracy Beliefs

no code implementations6 Feb 2024 Erik Weber, Jérôme Rutinowski, Markus Pauly

This paper tries to shed light on this, providing an in-depth analysis of the dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs of GPT-3. 5 and GPT-4.

Adapting tree-based multiple imputation methods for multi-level data? A simulation study

no code implementations25 Jan 2024 Nico Föge, Jakob Schwerter, Ketevan Gurtskaia, Markus Pauly, Philipp Doebler

However, the adapted boosting approach (mixgb with cluster dummies) consistently outperforms other methods for Level-1 variables at higher missingness rates (30%, 50%).

Imputation

The Self-Perception and Political Biases of ChatGPT

no code implementations14 Apr 2023 Jérôme Rutinowski, Sven Franke, Jan Endendyk, Ina Dormuth, Markus Pauly

In addition, ChatGPT's Big Five personality traits were tested using the OCEAN test and its personality type was queried using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) test.

Language Modelling Large Language Model

RODD: Robust Outlier Detection in Data Cubes

no code implementations14 Mar 2023 Lara Kuhlmann, Daniel Wilmes, Emmanuel Müller, Markus Pauly, Daniel Horn

We propose a general type of test data and examine all methods in a simulation study.

Outlier Detection

Comparing statistical and machine learning methods for time series forecasting in data-driven logistics -- A simulation study

no code implementations13 Mar 2023 Lena Schmid, Moritz Roidl, Markus Pauly

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors.

Management Time Series +1

Dataset Bias in Human Activity Recognition

no code implementations19 Jan 2023 Nilah Ravi Nair, Lena Schmid, Fernando Moya Rueda, Markus Pauly, Gernot A. Fink, Christopher Reining

It is unknown what physical characteristics and/or soft-biometrics, such as age, height, and weight, need to be taken into account to train a classifier to achieve robustness towards heterogeneous populations in the training and testing data.

Human Activity Recognition Time Series +1

Learning Causal Graphs in Manufacturing Domains using Structural Equation Models

no code implementations26 Oct 2022 Maximilian Kertel, Stefan Harmeling, Markus Pauly

Many production processes are characterized by numerous and complex cause-and-effect relationships.

Estimating Gaussian Copulas with Missing Data

no code implementations14 Jan 2022 Maximilian Kertel, Markus Pauly

In this work we present a rigorous application of the Expectation Maximization algorithm to determine the marginal distributions and the dependence structure in a Gaussian copula model with missing data.

Using Sequential Statistical Tests for Efficient Hyperparameter Tuning

no code implementations23 Dec 2021 Philip Buczak, Andreas Groll, Markus Pauly, Jakob Rehof, Daniel Horn

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the the most time-consuming parts in machine learning.

On the Relation between Prediction and Imputation Accuracy under Missing Covariates

no code implementations9 Dec 2021 Burim Ramosaj, Justus Tulowietzki, Markus Pauly

In this work, we analyze through simulation the interaction between imputation accuracy and prediction accuracy in regression learning problems with missing covariates when Machine Learning based methods for both, imputation and prediction are used.

BIG-bench Machine Learning Imputation +5

Is there a role for statistics in artificial intelligence?

no code implementations13 Sep 2020 Sarah Friedrich, Gerd Antes, Sigrid Behr, Harald Binder, Werner Brannath, Florian Dumpert, Katja Ickstadt, Hans Kestler, Johannes Lederer, Heinz Leitgöb, Markus Pauly, Ansgar Steland, Adalbert Wilhelm, Tim Friede

The research on and application of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered a comprehensive scientific, economic, social and political discussion.

Travel Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles

1 code implementation28 May 2020 He Huang, Martin Pouls, Anne Meyer, Markus Pauly

The computational results show that the addition of this routing data can be beneficial to the model performance.

Prediction

Asymptotic Unbiasedness of the Permutation Importance Measure in Random Forest Models

no code implementations5 Dec 2019 Burim Ramosaj, Markus Pauly

Due to its intuitive idea and flexible usage, it is important to explore circumstances, for which the permutation importance based on Random Forest correctly indicates informative covariates.

Econometrics regression +1

Who wins the Miss Contest for Imputation Methods? Our Vote for Miss BooPF

1 code implementation30 Nov 2017 Burim Ramosaj, Markus Pauly

In this paper we study whether this approach can even be enhanced by other methods such as the stochastic gradient tree boosting method, the C5. 0 algorithm or modified random forest procedures.

Imputation

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