A copula based Markov Reward approach to the credit spread in European Union

2 Feb 2019  ·  Guglielmo D'Amico, Filippo Petroni, Philippe Regnault, Stefania Scocchera, Loriano Storchi ·

In this paper, we propose a methodology based on piece-wise homogeneous Markov chain for credit ratings and a multivariate model of the credit spreads to evaluate the financial risk in European Union (EU). Two main aspects are considered: how the financial risk is distributed among the European countries and how large is the value of the total risk... The first aspect is evaluated by means of the expected value of a dynamic entropy measure. The second one is solved by computing the evolution of the total credit spread over time. Moreover, the covariance between countries' total spread allows understand any contagions in EU. The methodology is applied to real data of 24 countries for the three major agencies: Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch. Obtained results suggest that both the financial risk inequality and the value of the total risk increase over time at a different rate depending on the rating agency and that the dependence structure is characterized by a strong correlation between most of European countries. read more

PDF Abstract
No code implementations yet. Submit your code now

Tasks


Datasets


  Add Datasets introduced or used in this paper

Results from the Paper


  Submit results from this paper to get state-of-the-art GitHub badges and help the community compare results to other papers.

Methods


No methods listed for this paper. Add relevant methods here