FinReport: Explainable Stock Earnings Forecasting via News Factor Analyzing Model

5 Mar 2024  ยท  Xiangyu Li, Xinjie Shen, Yawen Zeng, Xiaofen Xing, Jin Xu ยท

The task of stock earnings forecasting has received considerable attention due to the demand investors in real-world scenarios. However, compared with financial institutions, it is not easy for ordinary investors to mine factors and analyze news. On the other hand, although large language models in the financial field can serve users in the form of dialogue robots, it still requires users to have financial knowledge to ask reasonable questions. To serve the user experience, we aim to build an automatic system, FinReport, for ordinary investors to collect information, analyze it, and generate reports after summarizing. Specifically, our FinReport is based on financial news announcements and a multi-factor model to ensure the professionalism of the report. The FinReport consists of three modules: news factorization module, return forecasting module, risk assessment module. The news factorization module involves understanding news information and combining it with stock factors, the return forecasting module aim to analysis the impact of news on market sentiment, and the risk assessment module is adopted to control investment risk. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets have well verified the effectiveness and explainability of our proposed FinReport. Our codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/frinkleko/FinReport.

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Datasets


Results from the Paper


Task Dataset Model Metric Name Metric Value Global Rank Benchmark
Stock Market Prediction Astock SRL&SDPG&Factors Accuray 75.40 # 1
F1-score 75.12 # 1
Recall 75.23 # 1
Precision 75.42 # 1
Stock Market Prediction Astock Factos Only Accuray 63.74 # 10
F1-score 63.66 # 10
Recall 63.71 # 10
Precision 63.67 # 10
Stock Market Prediction Astock SRL&SDPG Accuray 66.10 # 7
F1-score 66.01 # 7
Recall 66.09 # 7
Precision 66.04 # 7
Stock Market Prediction Astock SRL&Factors Accuray 69.48 # 3
F1-score 69.28 # 3
Recall 69.41 # 3
Precision 69.54 # 3
Stock Market Prediction Astock SDPG&Factors Accuray 73.12 # 2
F1-score 72.97 # 2
Recall 72.96 # 2
Precision 73.04 # 2

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