Incorporating Expert Guidance in Epidemic Forecasting

24 Dec 2020  ·  Alexander Rodríguez, Bijaya Adhikari, Naren Ramakrishnan, B. Aditya Prakash ·

Forecasting influenza like illnesses (ILI) has rapidly progressed in recent years from an art to a science with a plethora of data-driven methods. While these methods have achieved qualified success, their applicability is limited due to their inability to incorporate expert feedback and guidance systematically into the forecasting framework. We propose a new approach leveraging the Seldonian optimization framework from AI safety and demonstrate how it can be adapted to epidemic forecasting. We study two types of guidance: smoothness and regional consistency of errors, where we show that by its successful incorporation, we are able to not only bound the probability of undesirable behavior to happen, but also to reduce RMSE on test data by up to 17%.

PDF Abstract
No code implementations yet. Submit your code now



  Add Datasets introduced or used in this paper

Results from the Paper

  Submit results from this paper to get state-of-the-art GitHub badges and help the community compare results to other papers.


No methods listed for this paper. Add relevant methods here