System-Wide Emergency Policy for Transitioning from Main to Secondary Fuel
Inspired by the challenges of running the Israel's power system -- with its increasing integration of renewables, significant load uncertainty, and primary reliance on natural gas -- we investigate an emergency scenario where there's a need to transition temporarily to a pricier secondary fuel until the emergency resolves. Our objective is to devise tools that can assist power system operators in making decisions during such critical periods. We frame this challenge as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) optimization, considering uncertainties like potential failures of dual-fuel generators during the transition, operator attentiveness under stress, available but finite amount of primary fuel (linepack available in the natural gas part of the system), power forecast (net demand after renewable production), and the cost implications of unavoidable load shedding. By solving the MDP in a simplified context, we identify viable policies through simulations of multiple parametrized Markov Processes (MPs). We verify our methodology using a realistic open-source model replicating Israel's power-gas infrastructure and outline next steps for refining and adapting this approach.
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