The Private Income Tax Shock Premium
This paper investigates the asset pricing implications of tax policy changes. News about tax cuts decreases future tax revenues and increases future consumer demand and output. Using cross-sectional variation in industry exposure to structurally identified tax news, I develop a factor mimicking private income tax shocks. I construct an investment strategy, which generates annualized risk-adjusted returns of 5.16 % over the Fama-French 3-factor model. I rationalize the finding by arguing that firms with more elastic demands bear higher consumption risk, which works through a wealth effect.
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