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Evaluating Probabilistic Classifiers: The Triptych
Probability forecasts for binary outcomes, often referred to as probabilistic classifiers or confidence scores, are ubiquitous in science and society, and methods for evaluating and comparing them are in great demand.
Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: Reliability diagrams and score decompositions revisited
A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibrated if the predicted probabilities are matched by ex post observed frequencies, as examined visually in reliability diagrams.
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