1 code implementation • 24 Oct 2023 • Dhruvit Patel, Alexander Wikner
We test this method on two time-series forecasting problems: multi-step forecasting of the dynamics of the non-stationary Lorenz `63 equation, and one-step forecasting of the weekly incident deaths due to COVID-19.
1 code implementation • 9 Nov 2022 • Alexander Wikner, Joseph Harvey, Michelle Girvan, Brian R. Hunt, Andrew Pomerance, Thomas Antonsen, Edward Ott
In this article, we systematically examine the technique of adding noise to the ML model input during training to promote stability and improve prediction accuracy.
no code implementations • 15 Feb 2021 • Alexander Wikner, Jaideep Pathak, Brian R. Hunt, Istvan Szunyogh, Michelle Girvan, Edward Ott
We show that by using partial measurements of the state of the dynamical system, we can train a machine learning model to improve predictions made by an imperfect knowledge-based model.
no code implementations • 10 Feb 2020 • Alexander Wikner, Jaideep Pathak, Brian Hunt, Michelle Girvan, Troy Arcomano, Istvan Szunyogh, Andrew Pomerance, Edward Ott
We consider the commonly encountered situation (e. g., in weather forecasting) where the goal is to predict the time evolution of a large, spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical system when we have access to both time series data of previous system states and an imperfect model of the full system dynamics.
no code implementations • 9 Mar 2018 • Jaideep Pathak, Alexander Wikner, Rebeckah Fussell, Sarthak Chandra, Brian Hunt, Michelle Girvan, Edward Ott
A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system.