Search Results for author: Alexander Wikner

Found 5 papers, 2 papers with code

Attention-Based Ensemble Pooling for Time Series Forecasting

1 code implementation24 Oct 2023 Dhruvit Patel, Alexander Wikner

We test this method on two time-series forecasting problems: multi-step forecasting of the dynamics of the non-stationary Lorenz `63 equation, and one-step forecasting of the weekly incident deaths due to COVID-19.

Time Series Time Series Forecasting +1

Stabilizing Machine Learning Prediction of Dynamics: Noise and Noise-inspired Regularization

1 code implementation9 Nov 2022 Alexander Wikner, Joseph Harvey, Michelle Girvan, Brian R. Hunt, Andrew Pomerance, Thomas Antonsen, Edward Ott

In this article, we systematically examine the technique of adding noise to the ML model input during training to promote stability and improve prediction accuracy.

Using Data Assimilation to Train a Hybrid Forecast System that Combines Machine-Learning and Knowledge-Based Components

no code implementations15 Feb 2021 Alexander Wikner, Jaideep Pathak, Brian R. Hunt, Istvan Szunyogh, Michelle Girvan, Edward Ott

We show that by using partial measurements of the state of the dynamical system, we can train a machine learning model to improve predictions made by an imperfect knowledge-based model.

BIG-bench Machine Learning

Combining Machine Learning with Knowledge-Based Modeling for Scalable Forecasting and Subgrid-Scale Closure of Large, Complex, Spatiotemporal Systems

no code implementations10 Feb 2020 Alexander Wikner, Jaideep Pathak, Brian Hunt, Michelle Girvan, Troy Arcomano, Istvan Szunyogh, Andrew Pomerance, Edward Ott

We consider the commonly encountered situation (e. g., in weather forecasting) where the goal is to predict the time evolution of a large, spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical system when we have access to both time series data of previous system states and an imperfect model of the full system dynamics.

BIG-bench Machine Learning Time Series +2

Hybrid Forecasting of Chaotic Processes: Using Machine Learning in Conjunction with a Knowledge-Based Model

no code implementations9 Mar 2018 Jaideep Pathak, Alexander Wikner, Rebeckah Fussell, Sarthak Chandra, Brian Hunt, Michelle Girvan, Edward Ott

A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system.

BIG-bench Machine Learning Time Series +2

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