no code implementations • 26 Oct 2023 • Georgy Noarov, Ramya Ramalingam, Aaron Roth, Stephan Xie
We study the problem of making predictions of an adversarially chosen high-dimensional state that are unbiased subject to an arbitrary collection of conditioning events, with the goal of tailoring these events to downstream decision makers.
no code implementations • 16 Feb 2023 • Georgy Noarov, Aaron Roth
To further counter-weigh our negative result, we show that if a property $\Gamma^1$ is not elicitable by itself, but is elicitable conditionally on another elicitable property $\Gamma^0$, then there is a canonical algorithm that jointly multicalibrates $\Gamma^1$ and $\Gamma^0$; this generalizes past work on mean-moment multicalibration.
1 code implementation • 30 Sep 2022 • Christopher Jung, Georgy Noarov, Ramya Ramalingam, Aaron Roth
Multivalid coverage guarantees are stronger than marginal coverage guarantees in two ways: (1) They hold even conditional on group membership -- that is, the target coverage level $1-\alpha$ holds conditionally on membership in each of an arbitrary (potentially intersecting) group in a finite collection $\mathcal{G}$ of regions in the feature space.
1 code implementation • 2 Jun 2022 • Osbert Bastani, Varun Gupta, Christopher Jung, Georgy Noarov, Ramya Ramalingam, Aaron Roth
It is computationally lightweight -- comparable to split conformal prediction -- but does not require having a held-out validation set, and so all data can be used for training models from which to derive a conformal score.
no code implementations • 9 Aug 2021 • Daniel Lee, Georgy Noarov, Mallesh Pai, Aaron Roth
We introduce a simple but general online learning framework in which a learner plays against an adversary in a vector-valued game that changes every round.
no code implementations • 5 Jan 2021 • Varun Gupta, Christopher Jung, Georgy Noarov, Mallesh M. Pai, Aaron Roth
We present a general, efficient technique for providing contextual predictions that are "multivalid" in various senses, against an online sequence of adversarially chosen examples $(x, y)$.