no code implementations • 11 Jul 2022 • Giuseppe Storti, Chao Wang
We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric modelling approach to portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting.
no code implementations • 11 Apr 2021 • Giuseppe Storti, Chao Wang
A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting.
no code implementations • 11 May 2020 • Giuseppe Storti, Chao Wang
The proposed models are applied to 7 stock market indices and their forecasting performances are compared to those of a range of parametric, non-parametric and semi-parametric models, including GARCH, Conditional AutoRegressive Expectile (CARE), joint VaR and ES quantile regression models and simple average of quantiles.