Eliciting judgements about dependent quantities of interest: The SHELF extension and copula methods illustrated using an asthma case study

no code implementations • 4 Feb 2021 • Björn Holzhauer, Lisa V. Hampson, John Paul Gosling, Björn Bornkamp, Joseph Kahn, Markus R. Lange, Wen-Lin Luo, Caterina Brindicci, David Lawrence, Steffen Ballerstedt, Anthony O'Hagan

The first approach elicits experts' judgements about a quantity of interest conditional on knowledge about another one.

Improving the assessment of the probability of success in late stage drug development

no code implementations • 4 Feb 2021 • Lisa V Hampson, Björn Bornkamp, Björn Holzhauer, Joseph Kahn, Markus R Lange, Wen-Lin Luo, Giovanni Della Cioppa, Kelvin Stott, Steffen Ballerstedt

Using an example, we illustrate how PoS can be calculated accounting for differences between the phase IIb data and future phase III trials, and discuss how the methods can be extended to accommodate accelerated drug development pathways.

Applications Methodology