no code implementations • 8 Apr 2024 • James A. Duffy, Sophocles Mavroeidis
While it is widely recognised that linear (structural) VARs may omit important features of economic time series, the use of nonlinear SVARs has to date been almost entirely confined to the modelling of stationary time series, because of a lack of understanding as to how common stochastic trends may be accommodated within nonlinear VAR models.
no code implementations • 12 Jul 2023 • James A. Duffy, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Sam Wycherley
This paper studies a class of multivariate threshold autoregressive models, known as censored and kinked structural vector autoregressions (CKSVAR), which are notably able to accommodate series that are subject to occasionally binding constraints.
no code implementations • 17 Nov 2022 • James A. Duffy, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Sam Wycherley
In the literature on nonlinear cointegration, a long-standing open problem relates to how a (nonlinear) vector autoregression, which provides a unified description of the short- and long-run dynamics of a collection of time series, can generate 'nonlinear cointegration' in the profound sense of those series sharing common nonlinear stochastic trends.
no code implementations • 7 Sep 2022 • Max-Sebastian Dovì, Anders Bredahl Kock, Sophocles Mavroeidis
We consider hypothesis testing in instrumental variable regression models with few included exogenous covariates but many instruments -- possibly more than the number of observations.
no code implementations • 3 Aug 2022 • Guido Ascari, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Nigel McClung
Models with no rational expectations equilibria admit self-confirming equilibria involving the use of simple mis-specified forecasting models.
no code implementations • 19 Jul 2021 • Guido Ascari, Qazi Haque, Leandro M. Magnusson, Sophocles Mavroeidis
Is the typical specification of the Euler equation for investment employed in DSGE models consistent with aggregate macro data?
no code implementations • 23 Mar 2021 • Sophocles Mavroeidis
I show that the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on interest rates can be used to identify the causal effects of monetary policy.
no code implementations • 21 Mar 2021 • Patrik Guggenberger, Frank Kleibergen, Sophocles Mavroeidis
We show theoretically that the new test has asymptotic size bounded by the nominal size and document improved power relative to the AR/AR test in a wide array of Monte Carlo simulations when the covariance matrix is not too far from AKP.
no code implementations • 30 Dec 2020 • Daisuke Ikeda, Shangshang Li, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Francesco Zanetti
Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) may make the effective lower bound (ELB) on the short-term interest rate irrelevant.
no code implementations • 21 Oct 2020 • Patrik Guggenberger, Frank Kleibergen, Sophocles Mavroeidis
We propose a test for a covariance matrix to have Kronecker Product Structure (KPS).
no code implementations • 20 Jun 2020 • Guido Ascari, Sophocles Mavroeidis
Structural models with no solution are incoherent, and those with multiple solutions are incomplete.