Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number

no code implementations • 26 Sep 2023 • Andrea Bizzotto, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Martina del Manso, Alberto Mateo Urdiales, Daniele Petrone, Andrea Cannone, Chiara Sacco, Piero Poletti, Mattia Manica, Agnese Zardini, Filippo Trentini, Massimo Fabiani, Antonino Bella, Flavia Riccardo, Patrizio Pezzotti, Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler

The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its accurate estimation in real time.

Early estimates on monkeypox incubation period, generation time and reproduction number in Italy, May-June 2022

no code implementations • 27 Jul 2022 • Giorgio Guzzetta, Alessia Mammone, Federica Ferraro, Anna Caraglia, Alessia Rapiti, Valentina Marziano, Piero Poletti, Danilo Cereda, Francesco Vairo, Giovanna Mattei, Francesco Maraglino, Giovanni Rezza, Stefano Merler

We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox occurred in Italy in 2022.

Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data

no code implementations • 11 Mar 2022 • Mattia Manica, Maria Litvinova, Alfredo De Bellis, Giorgio Guzzetta, Pamela Mancuso, Massimo Vicentini, Francesco Venturelli, Eufemia Bisaccia, Ana I. Bento, Piero Poletti, Valentina Marziano, Agnese Zardini, Valeria d'Andrea, Filippo Trentini, Antonino Bella, Flavia Riccardo, Patrizio Pezzotti, Marco Ajelli, Paolo Giorgi Rossi, Stefano Merler, the Reggio Emilia COVID-19 Working Group

These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages.

Bayesian Inference

A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters to model COVID- 19 burden

no code implementations • 29 Mar 2021 • Agnese Zardini, Margherita Galli, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda, Mattia Manica, Filippo Trentini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Raffaella Piccarreta, Alessia Melegaro, Marco Ajelli, Piero Poletti, Stefano Merler

Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases.