The stochastic dynamics of early epidemics: probability of establishment, initial growth rate, and infection cluster size at first detection

1 code implementation • 17 Nov 2020 • Peter Czuppon, Emmanuel Schertzer, François Blanquart, Florence Débarre

Here, we review existing mathematical results on the epidemic size over time, and derive new results to elucidate the early dynamics of an infection cluster started by a single infected individual.