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Functional Decision Theory: A New Theory of Instrumental Rationality
This paper describes and motivates a new decision theory known as functional decision theory (FDT), as distinct from causal decision theory and evidential decision theory.
Logical Induction
For instance, if the language is Peano arithmetic, it assigns probabilities to all arithmetical statements, including claims about the twin prime conjecture, the outputs of long-running computations, and its own probabilities.
Asymptotic Convergence in Online Learning with Unbounded Delays
We study the problem of predicting the results of computations that are too expensive to run, via the observation of the results of smaller computations.
Inductive Coherence
While probability theory is normally applied to external environments, there has been some recent interest in probabilistic modeling of the outputs of computations that are too expensive to run.
Toward Idealized Decision Theory
This paper motivates the study of decision theory as necessary for aligning smarter-than-human artificial systems with human interests.
